Compare text

Find the difference between two text files

Real-time diff

Unified diff

Collapse lines

Highlight change

Syntax highlighting

Tools

fx:macro Summary Changes 2023_08_12

Created 9 months agoDiff never expires

30 removals

138 lines

31 additions

137 lines

"05.08.23

"12.08.23

***** MACRO *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Positive growth and falling inflation in the US: goldilocks for stocks

▶︎ Equity volatility is still low, FX vol has dropped too

▶︎ Credit spreads are tight

▶︎ Sector rotation and breadth confirm current action in stocks

▶︎ Breadth confirms the current action in stocks

▶︎ CL has been going up for a few weeks now

▶︎ CL has been going up for a few weeks now, front-month backwardation is getting steeper

▶︎ The Chinese OECD CLI has turned around and is outperforming

▶︎ The global CESI has picked up a bit

▶︎ The global CESI has picked up a bit, the Chinese CESI is off its low

▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is moving up and is far from extreme

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Sentiment is still too bullish: AAII Bull-Bear and CNN's Fear & Greed Index both in/near extreme territories

▶︎ The Bloomberg PMI heatmap isn't looking good, Asian PMIs aren't improving

▶︎ Industrial metals aren't performing

▶︎ Recession probability according to the Cleveland Fed model is still >75%

▶︎ All of the G8 2s10s except for JPY are inverted now

>>SUMMARY<<

Groundhog Day goes on, and nothing about the fundamentals has changed. US stocks are having a bit of a pullback but that's nothing unexpected or extraordinary given how extended everything is to the upside. Chinese stocks attempted an upside breakout from their range, commodities are still rangebound despite the rally in crude oil, and copper isn't joining the party.

Again, not much has changed. The US is still outperforming pretty much everyone else, Europe is barely hanging on, and China slipped into deflation. Economies are slow-moving tankers, and these tankers have been on their respective courses for some months now.

The pullback in stocks looks orderly and makes sense from a seasonality perspective and given how extended the major names have been and still are.

I guess you could frame it positively: given the weak data from China we've seen over months now, it's remarkable that CL and HG are still trading where they are and not lower.

Things I have on my radar are: bonds lower, RINF and 5y5y forward inflation expectations going up, crude oil higher... that's probably not a good combination on a higher timeframe when we're betting on disinflation.

***** USD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ GDPNow for Q3 increased to 3.9%, WEI is up too, Q2 GDP beat expectations

▶︎ GDPNow for Q3 increased further to >4%, WEI is slowly going up too, Q2 GDP beat expectations

▶︎ Data coming in mostly stronger than expected

▶︎ PMI on the heatmap has improved a bit

▶︎ Inflation Nowcast points higher

▶︎ OECD CLI is slowly picking up

▶︎ COT positioning in DX and indirectly via other FX futures is bullish

▶︎ Bullish seasonality

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Nothing helpful from Fed speakers

▶︎ Fed speakers have turned dovish, Williams and Harker talking about 2024 rate cuts

▶︎ CSII is lower, CPI is coming down, 1yr ahead consumer inflation expectations are down

▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal for USDCNY is lower

▶︎ The 5y breakeven rate is below the 10y and the 5y-10y spread is falling fast

▶︎ Citi PAIN shows a huge spike in USD longs, and it's hard to imagine that's going to be sustained

>>SUMMARY<<

I still haven't made up my mind on the dollar, and I'll be sticking to short-term trades in both directions.

I'm glad I don't have a firm view on the dollar right now because this week, a bullish view got a boost from reasonably good data including GDPNow at 4.1%, and a bearish view got support from two influential Fedheads talking about cutting rates in 2024. That fits with the conflicting information I get from my real-yield proxies (one goes up, the other one down), so not having a directional view right now is the right thing.

As I wrote last week, the dollar smile, yield differentials and positioning are all positive for the dollar. This week saw 10y yields go higher and USD follow suit. 10s have broken through the last peak and are approaching 2022 highs. I don't have a view of whether we are going to break through or not but with CL going up (and an increase in the Inflation Nowcast), breakevens trading higher and higher funding needs from the US Treasury, I think it's a decent possibility.

10-year yields are still trading where they were one week ago, and I still see the risk of them trading beyond old highs, which would be bullish dollar.

Now that I think of it, I'm inclined to lean more towards a long than towards a short.

Next week, we're expecting mostly better data again, and FOMC minutes. I doubt they will contain anything materially new but the market might short-term react to whatever bit it deems relevant.

***** EUR *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ CESI is picking up from its low

▶︎ Inherent strength

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ ECB hawks are all on holiday apparently

▶︎ Both German and Eurozone PMIs are weaker, and the commentary in the release was depressing

▶︎ COT positioning back at bearish extreme

▶︎ COT positioning is still bearish

▶︎ German 2s are especially weak

▶︎ OECD CLI for Germany has turned lower again

▶︎ Seasonality is bearish

>>SUMMARY<<

Still not much positive to say about the euro, and there's nothing on the calendar that would be a catalyst for a good long trade.

The euro is still a lot stronger than I think is justified. The fundamentals are weak, yields are trading accordingly but the euro is still going.

***** GBP *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Bearish sentiment

▶︎ Data surprised (again) this week, CESI jumped higher

▶︎ OECD CLI has slowed but is still trending higher

▶︎ It's still surprisingly strong

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Relatively dovish BoE meeting with rates now considered ""restrictive""

▶︎ 2s are weak

▶︎ COT positioning is bearish

▶︎ Data is coming in weaker and GBP is reacting accordingly

▶︎ CESI is past its peak and moving lower

▶︎ CSII has dropped again

▶︎ Bearish seasonality

>>SUMMARY<<

I still think GBP lower is the reasonable thing to expect but price action has not confirmed it, and a look at the currency index for GBP shows how resilient it is.

It's remarkable that after months of the UK delivering upside surprises we've got another big one on Friday with virtually every data point better than expected.

The BoE decision was reasonably dovish and we saw some downside in sterling but nothing sustained, another sign of inherent strength.

As I wrote last week, from where we are right now, it would be reasonable to expect GBP lower but price action just isn't confirming it. Its currency index hasn't made a new high yet but it's not falling either.

***** AUD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ OECD CLI looks like it is bottoming

▶︎ Manufacturing PMI on the heatmap has improved

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Expectations for another hike from the RBA were disappointed

▶︎ Nothing hawkish from Lowe this week

▶︎ Dropping CESI and Inflation Surprise Index

▶︎ More weak data from China expected, AUD has been trading badly on that recently

▶︎ 2y yields have underperformed

▶︎ Bullish sentiment

▶︎ Bearish seasonality

>>SUMMARY<<

Another bad week for AUD (and NZD) on risk off, nothing from the RBA and nothing noteworthy on the data front. I'm not expecting anything to change here, so I'm leaving the bias at bearish.

I don't see anything that would support AUD fundamentally in the near-term. Aussie data has been mixed and not very exciting, the RBA isn't providing any positive impulse, Chinese data has mostly disappointed, and we're in a bit of a risk-off environment with equities pulling back. Next week, the PBOC is expected to keep their MLF unchanged which probably won't make anyone buy AUD. The RBA minutes will likely include something about a discussion of a 25 bps hike but why would they not have discussed this given the expectations going into the last meeting? All in all, it remains a short.

***** NZD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ CESI has picked up further

▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal is diverging higher

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ It's inherently weak

▶︎ Sentiment is bullish

▶︎ Bearish seasonality

>>SUMMARY<<

Things are similar to AUD for NZD: no help from the central bank, data is mediocre at best and nobody is going to get excited about it.

There's a 99% chance of no change to the policy rate this week but the options market is showing that traders are hedging the upside in NZDUSD. There hasn't been any commentary from the RBNZ since their last meeting, and PMIs have come in weaker while CPI surprised a tad to the upside. Their guidance has been clear, and I don't expect a surprise. So, the bias remains bearish.

***** CAD *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ The Manufacturing PMI has improved on the Bloomberg heatmap

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ The BOC have ended their hiking cycle, no hint of further action in the statement

▶︎ Data over the last few weeks has mostly disappointed and weakened

▶︎ CL has staged a bit of a stealth rally but correlation to CL is currently negative

▶︎ CSII is dropping

▶︎ Has the worst OECD CLI among the G7

▶︎ Bullish sentiment and bearish seasonality

>>SUMMARY<<

Unchanged from last week: There's nothing I particularly like about CAD right now. It has a high correlation to USD and a negative one to CL.

Unchanged from the last two weeks: There's nothing I particularly like about CAD right now. It has a high correlation to USD and a negative one to CL.

But: compared to other currencies, ""nothing to like"" isn't the worst thing out there. I don't see why it shouldn't perform better than AUD or NZD, for example.

***** CHF *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ The SNB is still trying to sound hawkish, I just wonder why

▶︎ Bearish sentiment via EURCHF and USDCHF

▶︎ CESI is going up

▶︎ Inherent strength

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ Huge divergence between COT Large Trader net positions and price

▶︎ Inflation Surprise Index has gone down further

▶︎ PMI on the heatmap is weaker

▶︎ 2-year and 10-year yields are underperforming

>>SUMMARY<<

We don't get a lot of data from Switzerland but the data we got this week was bad: weaker consumer sentiment, a Manufacturing PMI in the 30s and a deflationary m/m CPI print. It was a risk-offish week, so CHF performed reasonably well. I wonder how long the SNB will continue to buy it higher. The bearish bias is a fundamental one.

CHF had another reasonably good week performance-wise but the the things I wrote last week remain true. Data has worsened markedly, and I don't know why the SNB is still buying it (assuming it still is). Maechler and Jordan last spoke 5-6 weeks ago, and the next SNB meeting is still five weeks or so away. I remain bearish but similar to GBP, price action isn't yet confirming that view.

***** JPY *****

>>BULL<<

▶︎ Potentially higher 10y yields should be good for JPY

▶︎ 10y yields pushing higher despite BOJ interventions

▶︎ The BOJ have upgraded their near-term inflation forecasts (but only those; the FY 2024 projection has been lowered)

>>BEAR<<

▶︎ COT still says a JPY short is still not a very crowded trade

▶︎ Sentiment is bullish

▶︎ CSII has dropped

▶︎ Still the most dovish central bank out there

>>SUMMARY<<

Last week, everyone was confused as to what the BOJ meant but this week has shown that JPY is still good as a haven currency. It finished the weak behind USD, EUR and CHF performance-wise. Factoring out the rise in US yields and the risk-off sentiment, my take would be that the latest YCC tweak by the BOJ hasn't changed much for the yen, which means it's mostly a trade from the short side."

I don't know why not more traders are surprised how well-behaved Japanese 10-year yields are since the BOJ's YCC tweak. This week, it has even underperformed everyone else despite risk-off, underscoring that it's inherently weak."

Saved diffs

Original text

Open file

"05.08.23
***** MACRO *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Positive growth and falling inflation in the US: goldilocks for stocks
▶︎ Equity volatility is still low, FX vol has dropped too
▶︎ Credit spreads are tight
▶︎ Sector rotation and breadth confirm current action in stocks
▶︎ CL has been going up for a few weeks now
▶︎ The Chinese OECD CLI has turned around and is outperforming
▶︎ The global CESI has picked up a bit
▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is moving up and is far from extreme
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Sentiment is still too bullish: AAII Bull-Bear and CNN's Fear & Greed Index both in/near extreme territories
▶︎ The Bloomberg PMI heatmap isn't looking good, Asian PMIs aren't improving
▶︎ Industrial metals aren't performing
▶︎ Recession probability according to the Cleveland Fed model is still >75%
▶︎ All of the G8 2s10s except for JPY are inverted now
     >>SUMMARY<<
Groundhog Day goes on, and nothing about the fundamentals has changed. US stocks are having a bit of a pullback but that's nothing unexpected or extraordinary given how extended everything is to the upside. Chinese stocks attempted an upside breakout from their range, commodities are still rangebound despite the rally in crude oil, and copper isn't joining the party.

I guess you could frame it positively: given the weak data from China we've seen over months now, it's remarkable that CL and HG are still trading where they are and not lower.

***** USD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ GDPNow for Q3 increased to 3.9%, WEI is up too, Q2 GDP beat expectations
▶︎ Data coming in mostly stronger than expected
▶︎ PMI on the heatmap has improved a bit
▶︎ Inflation Nowcast points higher
▶︎ OECD CLI is slowly picking up
▶︎ COT positioning in DX and indirectly via other FX futures is bullish
▶︎ Bullish seasonality
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Nothing helpful from Fed speakers
▶︎ CSII is lower, CPI is coming down, 1yr ahead consumer inflation expectations are down
▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal for USDCNY is lower
▶︎ The 5y breakeven rate is below the 10y and the 5y-10y spread is falling fast
▶︎ Citi PAIN shows a huge spike in USD longs, and it's hard to imagine that's going to be sustained
     >>SUMMARY<<
I still haven't made up my mind on the dollar, and I'll be sticking to short-term trades in both directions.

As I wrote last week, the dollar smile, yield differentials and positioning are all positive for the dollar. This week saw 10y yields go higher and USD follow suit. 10s have broken through the last peak and are approaching 2022 highs. I don't have a view of whether we are going to break through or not but with CL going up (and an increase in the Inflation Nowcast), breakevens trading higher and higher funding needs from the US Treasury, I think it's a decent possibility.

Now that I think of it, I'm inclined to lean more towards a long than towards a short.

***** EUR *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI is picking up from its low
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ ECB hawks are all on holiday apparently
▶︎ Both German and Eurozone PMIs are weaker, and the commentary in the release was depressing
▶︎ COT positioning back at bearish extreme
▶︎ OECD CLI for Germany has turned lower again
▶︎ Seasonality is bearish
     >>SUMMARY<<
Still not much positive to say about the euro, and there's nothing on the calendar that would be a catalyst for a good long trade.

***** GBP *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Bearish sentiment
▶︎ OECD CLI has slowed but is still trending higher
▶︎ It's still surprisingly strong
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Relatively dovish BoE meeting with rates now considered ""restrictive""
▶︎ 2s are weak
▶︎ COT positioning is bearish
▶︎ Data is coming in weaker and GBP is reacting accordingly
▶︎ CESI is past its peak and moving lower
▶︎ CSII has dropped again
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
I still think GBP lower is the reasonable thing to expect but price action has not confirmed it, and a look at the currency index for GBP shows how resilient it is.

The BoE decision was reasonably dovish and we saw some downside in sterling but nothing sustained, another sign of inherent strength.

***** AUD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ OECD CLI looks like it is bottoming
▶︎ Manufacturing PMI on the heatmap has improved
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Expectations for another hike from the RBA were disappointed
▶︎ Dropping CESI and Inflation Surprise Index
▶︎ More weak data from China expected, AUD has been trading badly on that recently
▶︎ 2y yields have underperformed
▶︎ Bullish sentiment
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
Another bad week for AUD (and NZD) on risk off, nothing from the RBA and nothing noteworthy on the data front. I'm not expecting anything to change here, so I'm leaving the bias at bearish.

***** NZD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI has picked up further
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ It's inherently weak
▶︎ Sentiment is bullish
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
Things are similar to AUD for NZD: no help from the central bank, data is mediocre at best and nobody is going to get excited about it.

***** CAD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The Manufacturing PMI has improved on the Bloomberg heatmap
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ The BOC have ended their hiking cycle, no hint of further action in the statement
▶︎ Data over the last few weeks has mostly disappointed and weakened
▶︎ CL has staged a bit of a stealth rally but correlation to CL is currently negative
▶︎ CSII is dropping
▶︎ Has the worst OECD CLI among the G7
▶︎ Bullish sentiment and bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
Unchanged from last week: There's nothing I particularly like about CAD right now. It has a high correlation to USD and a negative one to CL.

But: compared to other currencies, ""nothing to like"" isn't the worst thing out there. I don't see why it shouldn't perform better than AUD or NZD, for example.

***** CHF *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The SNB is still trying to sound hawkish, I just wonder why
▶︎ Bearish sentiment via EURCHF and USDCHF
▶︎ CESI is going up
▶︎ Inherent strength
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Huge divergence between COT Large Trader net positions and price
▶︎ Inflation Surprise Index has gone down further
▶︎ PMI on the heatmap is weaker
     >>SUMMARY<<
We don't get a lot of data from Switzerland but the data we got this week was bad: weaker consumer sentiment, a Manufacturing PMI in the 30s and a deflationary m/m CPI print. It was a risk-offish week, so CHF performed reasonably well. I wonder how long the SNB will continue to buy it higher. The bearish bias is a fundamental one.

***** JPY *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Potentially higher 10y yields should be good for JPY
▶︎ 10y yields pushing higher despite BOJ interventions
▶︎ The BOJ have upgraded their near-term inflation forecasts (but only those; the FY 2024 projection has been lowered)
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ COT still says a JPY short is still not a very crowded trade
▶︎ Sentiment is bullish
▶︎ CSII has dropped
▶︎ Still the most dovish central bank out there
     >>SUMMARY<<
Last week, everyone was confused as to what the BOJ meant but this week has shown that JPY is still good as a haven currency. It finished the weak behind USD, EUR and CHF performance-wise. Factoring out the rise in US yields and the risk-off sentiment, my take would be that the latest YCC tweak by the BOJ hasn't changed much for the yen, which means it's mostly a trade from the short side."

Changed text

Open file

"12.08.23
***** MACRO *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Positive growth and falling inflation in the US: goldilocks for stocks
▶︎ Equity volatility is still low, FX vol has dropped too
▶︎ Credit spreads are tight
▶︎ Breadth confirms the current action in stocks
▶︎ CL has been going up for a few weeks now, front-month backwardation is getting steeper
▶︎ The Chinese OECD CLI has turned around and is outperforming
▶︎ The global CESI has picked up a bit, the Chinese CESI is off its low
▶︎ TD Ameritrade IMX is moving up and is far from extreme
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Sentiment is still too bullish: AAII Bull-Bear and CNN's Fear & Greed Index both in/near extreme territories
▶︎ The Bloomberg PMI heatmap isn't looking good, Asian PMIs aren't improving
▶︎ Industrial metals aren't performing
▶︎ Recession probability according to the Cleveland Fed model is still >75%
▶︎ All of the G8 2s10s except for JPY are inverted now
     >>SUMMARY<<
Again, not much has changed. The US is still outperforming pretty much everyone else, Europe is barely hanging on, and China slipped into deflation. Economies are slow-moving tankers, and these tankers have been on their respective courses for some months now.

The pullback in stocks looks orderly and makes sense from a seasonality perspective and given how extended the major names have been and still are.

Things I have on my radar are: bonds lower, RINF and 5y5y forward inflation expectations going up, crude oil higher... that's probably not a good combination on a higher timeframe when we're betting on disinflation.

***** USD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ GDPNow for Q3 increased further to >4%, WEI is slowly going up too, Q2 GDP beat expectations
▶︎ PMI on the heatmap has improved a bit
▶︎ Inflation Nowcast points higher
▶︎ OECD CLI is slowly picking up
▶︎ COT positioning in DX and indirectly via other FX futures is bullish
▶︎ Bullish seasonality
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Fed speakers have turned dovish, Williams and Harker talking about 2024 rate cuts
▶︎ CSII is lower, CPI is coming down, 1yr ahead consumer inflation expectations are down
▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal for USDCNY is lower
▶︎ The 5y breakeven rate is below the 10y and the 5y-10y spread is falling fast
     >>SUMMARY<<
I'm glad I don't have a firm view on the dollar right now because this week, a bullish view got a boost from reasonably good data including GDPNow at 4.1%, and a bearish view got support from two influential Fedheads talking about cutting rates in 2024. That fits with the conflicting information I get from my real-yield proxies (one goes up, the other one down), so not having a directional view right now is the right thing.

10-year yields are still trading where they were one week ago, and I still see the risk of them trading beyond old highs, which would be bullish dollar.

Next week, we're expecting mostly better data again, and FOMC minutes. I doubt they will contain anything materially new but the market might short-term react to whatever bit it deems relevant.

***** EUR *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI is picking up from its low
▶︎ Inherent strength
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ ECB hawks are all on holiday apparently
▶︎ Both German and Eurozone PMIs are weaker, and the commentary in the release was depressing
▶︎ COT positioning is still bearish
▶︎ German 2s are especially weak
▶︎ OECD CLI for Germany has turned lower again
▶︎ Seasonality is bearish
     >>SUMMARY<<
The euro is still a lot stronger than I think is justified. The fundamentals are weak, yields are trading accordingly but the euro is still going.

***** GBP *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Data surprised (again) this week, CESI jumped higher
▶︎ OECD CLI has slowed but is still trending higher
▶︎ It's still surprisingly strong
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Relatively dovish BoE meeting with rates now considered ""restrictive""
▶︎ COT positioning is bearish
▶︎ CSII has dropped again
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
It's remarkable that after months of the UK delivering upside surprises we've got another big one on Friday with virtually every data point better than expected.

As I wrote last week, from where we are right now, it would be reasonable to expect GBP lower but price action just isn't confirming it. Its currency index hasn't made a new high yet but it's not falling either.

***** AUD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ OECD CLI looks like it is bottoming
▶︎ Manufacturing PMI on the heatmap has improved
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Nothing hawkish from Lowe this week
▶︎ Dropping CESI and Inflation Surprise Index
▶︎ 2y yields have underperformed
▶︎ Bullish sentiment
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
I don't see anything that would support AUD fundamentally in the near-term. Aussie data has been mixed and not very exciting, the RBA isn't providing any positive impulse, Chinese data has mostly disappointed, and we're in a bit of a risk-off environment with equities pulling back. Next week, the PBOC is expected to keep their MLF unchanged which probably won't make anyone buy AUD. The RBA minutes will likely include something about a discussion of a 25 bps hike but why would they not have discussed this given the expectations going into the last meeting? All in all, it remains a short.

***** NZD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ CESI has picked up further
▶︎ 25-delta risk reversal is diverging higher
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ It's inherently weak
▶︎ Sentiment is bullish
▶︎ Bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
There's a 99% chance of no change to the policy rate this week but the options market is showing that traders are hedging the upside in NZDUSD. There hasn't been any commentary from the RBNZ since their last meeting, and PMIs have come in weaker while CPI surprised a tad to the upside. Their guidance has been clear, and I don't expect a surprise. So, the bias remains bearish.

***** CAD *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The Manufacturing PMI has improved on the Bloomberg heatmap
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ The BOC have ended their hiking cycle, no hint of further action in the statement
▶︎ Data over the last few weeks has mostly disappointed and weakened
▶︎ CL has staged a bit of a stealth rally but correlation to CL is currently negative
▶︎ CSII is dropping
▶︎ Has the worst OECD CLI among the G7
▶︎ Bullish sentiment and bearish seasonality
     >>SUMMARY<<
Unchanged from the last two weeks: There's nothing I particularly like about CAD right now. It has a high correlation to USD and a negative one to CL.

But: compared to other currencies, ""nothing to like"" isn't the worst thing out there. I don't see why it shouldn't perform better than AUD or NZD, for example.

***** CHF *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ The SNB is still trying to sound hawkish, I just wonder why
▶︎ Bearish sentiment via EURCHF and USDCHF
▶︎ CESI is going up
▶︎ Inherent strength
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ Huge divergence between COT Large Trader net positions and price
▶︎ Inflation Surprise Index has gone down further
▶︎ PMI on the heatmap is weaker
▶︎ 2-year and 10-year yields are underperforming
     >>SUMMARY<<
CHF had another reasonably good week performance-wise but the the things I wrote last week remain true. Data has worsened markedly, and I don't know why the SNB is still buying it (assuming it still is). Maechler and Jordan last spoke 5-6 weeks ago, and the next SNB meeting is still five weeks or so away. I remain bearish but similar to GBP, price action isn't yet confirming that view.

***** JPY *****
     >>BULL<<
▶︎ Potentially higher 10y yields should be good for JPY
▶︎ The BOJ have upgraded their near-term inflation forecasts (but only those; the FY 2024 projection has been lowered)
     >>BEAR<<
▶︎ COT still says a JPY short is still not a very crowded trade
▶︎ Sentiment is bullish
▶︎ CSII has dropped
▶︎ Still the most dovish central bank out there
     >>SUMMARY<<
I don't know why not more traders are surprised how well-behaved Japanese 10-year yields are since the BOJ's YCC tweak. This week, it has even underperformed everyone else despite risk-off, underscoring that it's inherently weak."